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Statistically, though, Carroll’s call was sound and even good, notes decision science expert and former world-class poker participant Annie Duke. In distinction, poker gamers live in a world of uncertainty the place even a champion can lose to a novice in any given tournament thanks to a couple fortunate breaks. As a substitute of utilizing terms like “significant” or “huge,” cite the known information, the calculated probabilities, and your confidence stage that the selection is the best one, even when that confidence is an educated guess. Many executives like to attract analogies between business and chess, however a more correct comparison is to poker, Duke says. The greater the dangers of a foul choice, Duke asserts, the more important it’s to rely on data. In her latest book, Thinking in Bets, Duke notes that consequence pondering compounds poor selections on two levels: It dissuades us from making sound future choices while reinforcing bad choices that turned out well because of a fortunate break.

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